## Thursday, May 21, 2015

### PROBABILITY OF INVENTING PERPETUAL MOTION

FIRST STAGE: At this stage, most people think it's impossible, or that all calls are off.

50% Chance you could come up with a design, even if it's unoriginal.
25% Initial chance that someone will build a model if it's new.
5% Chance that the faulty design will be remembered for generations.

SECOND STAGE: This is the stage you want if people think it's improbable.

100% Chance they don't see the whole picture.
75% Chance you could conduct an interesting experiment with hard work.
5% Chance you could say something meaningful about perpetual motion.
<  1 % chance you could provide evidence of over-unity.

THIRD STAGE: This is the stage you want if it hasn't been invented before.

50% Chance it's impossible.
50% Chance it's easy.
12.50% Chance it's easy for someone but not everyone.
Miscellaneous probability that hardly anyone will attempt it.

FOURTH STAGE: This is the stage you want if it's been built before.

75% Chance no one owns it.
25% Chance you will get credit.
100% Proof
75% Chance an industry will adopt it.

0.05 * 0.01 * 0.375 * 0.25 = So, all in all, about a 1 / 50,000 chance of getting credit when you do the right experiments without it being overly difficult, based on a meaningful design when it's not impossible. Of course, if I'm the perfect inventor, it will seem impossible to those who aren't quite as good. A mere difference in ability might mean 1000 or 1,000,000 times less probability. That would be more like one in 50 million, or one in 50 billion. So, you might factor in the following skill factors:

* 1 = all the right priorities.
*0.5 = some of the right priorities.
*0.25 = very few of the right priorities
*0.125 = one right priority

Thus, if I have only some of the right priorities, the probability that I invent perpetual motion and get credit is still only 1 / 100,000.

Of course, these aren't hard numbers. A mere difference in priority could change the equation if perpetual motion is possible.

The key thing is to combine skill with building with genuine theories, which has been rarely done (Finsrud, perhaps).

On the other hand, if we have already reached the third stage because of good experiments, the probability is now increased to about 9.3% or over 10,000 times more likely than before, which is great news!

At this point, if my designs are adequate, the most difficult thing is physical design, which is a major hurdle.

Conventionally, perpetual motion has been considered as unlikely as winning all the lotteries that ever existed. But of course, that's so unlikely that any possibility of perpetual motion seems more probable. That's where I started.